Posted by: The moderator | February 26, 2012

Inevitability

Political commentators have made up their minds about Vladamir Putin regaining the Russian presidency, regardless of the large vocal opposition that continues to demonstrate in the streets. Whether he wins legitimately with his base of supporters in the Russian frontier or rigs the outcome like last year’s legislative elections, it is assumed that his return to the presidency is inevitable.

But what is also becoming inevitable is that Putin won’t be able to retain control of his presidency for the next six years. The Putin regime has already lost some legitimacy in all the upheaval and the protesters are preparing for the long-haul. As internet access chisels away at the power of Russia’s state-owned media and cracks appear in Putin’s public facade, it’s only a matter of time before serious regime change takes place. The question now is whether Putin will have to step down early like his unpopular predecessor Boris Yeltsin or whether an armed uprising like those sweeping through the Arab world will ultimately do him in.

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Responses

  1. how mysterious that just today the russians announced they had foiled a plot to assassinate him. i guess that just feeds into the narrative that he’s DEFINITELY inevitable…even an assassin’s bullet cannot stop the Putin train.

  2. Exactly, I’ve really enjoyed following the protests going on in Russia, pretty creative methods. There was one over a week ago where citizens created a 10-mile circle with a white ribbon to represent democracy. The stream actually did an interesting piece Art dissidence in Russia, check it out: http://stream.aljazeera.com/story/artistic-dissidence-goes-viral-russia-0022025

  3. I would be hesitant to claim that Putin will be gone in six years or less. The guy is pretty politically savvy. Look what he’s already done to get back into power. Some kudos should go to him for inserting Medvedev into the Kremlin, only to replace him since he [Putin] couldn’t run due to Russia’s consecutive term limit. Also, I think it’s hard to compare what has happened in the Middle East (armed uprisings) with the possibility that it could happen in Russia. Russia is by no means the Middle East. I guess time will tell 🙂

  4. Here is a good op-ed by Fareed Zakaria (CNN) http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/04/the-return-of-putin/?hpt=hp_t3

  5. I am so curious to see whether Clay Shirky’s discussion of how we’re supposed to see collective organizing and new technology will actually result in the kind of protests that will actually amount to serious change – will the Web and new technology be a big part of organizing? Who is going to drive this? How do you get rid of the entreched Russian oligarchy after this is all gone?


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